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The Cards That Are Out

The important aspect of stud poker holdem strategies is to adjust your play for the cards that are exposed in the other rivals' hand. This includes the cards that were folded as well as those that are still out against you. For instance, it would be crazy to play a pair of 5s in seven-card stud if two other 5s were exposed.

Here we shall discuss some examples of how a player's chances for improvement changes considerably depending on how many of their cards are gone and how many cards are exposed altogether.

There is another factor which is very important. For instance, a three-flush on your first three cards in seven-card stud will make a flush about 18 percent of the time, assuming no other cards are seen.

Now suppose exactly one of your seven rivals show a card in your suit. What does this do to your chances of making a flush?

Yes, they have increased your chances. You realize that the remaining deck has little more of your suit left proportionately than if you had seen no cards at all.

Let's see the examples one by one.

1. In seven-card stud you have in your first five cards:

You have seen other ten cards. Your chances of making the flush can be seen below:

Number of Chance for

Spades Seen Flush (%)

•  43.2

•  39.0

•  34.7

•  30.2

•  25.5

2. You have

on your first four cards of seven-card stud. You have seen eight other free cards:

Number of 5s Chance for

&10s Seen Straight (%)

•  49.8

•  44.8

•  39.4

•  33.8

3. You have

on your first three cards of seven-card stud. You have seen seven other cards:

Number of 5s Chances for Aces Up or Trips

& Aces Seen (%)

(or better including at least one five or ace)

•  41.0

•  34.1

•  26.5

4. You have

on your first three cards of seven-card stud. You have seen seven other cards:

Number of Chance for

Spades Seen Flush (%)

•  23.6

•  19.6

•  15.8

•  12.3

•  9.1

5. You have

on your first four cards in seven-card razz (lowball). You have seen ten other cards.

Number of 5- Chance for an

8s Seen eight low or

better (%)

•  81.8

•  79.0

•  76.0

•  72.7

•  69.2

•  65.3

•  61.2

•  56.7

•  51.9

The above chart shows the number of 5s, 6s, 7s and / or 8s seen and the opportunities of making an eight low or better ("Eight-or-better hi-low players should make a note of the above chart.)

To compare, take this same first four starting cards with 10 other cards seen with respect to making a seven low or better:

Number of 5 Chance for a 7s Seen seven low or

better (%)

•  69.2

•  51.9

•  29.1

We hope that this chart had made it clear how important it is to pay close attention to the cards that are exposed before you decide how (and whether) to play your hand.

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